The True Cost of Waiting to Go Solar
Every month you wait to go solar, you pay full retail for electricity that your roof could be generating for free. We calculated the real financial cost of delaying solar using current Xcel Energy rate trends, and the numbers are compelling.
People delay going solar for all kinds of reasons. They want to wait for prices to drop further. They think the technology will improve next year. They are busy with other priorities. They want to "do more research." These are all understandable, but they come with a price tag that most people never calculate.
The truth is that every month you delay going solar, you write a check to your utility company for electricity that solar panels on your roof would have provided at a fraction of the cost. And thanks to rising utility rates, the cost of waiting goes up every year. Let us look at the actual numbers.
Xcel Energy Rate Increase History
To understand the cost of waiting, you first need to understand what is happening to electricity prices. Xcel Energy, the primary utility for Colorado's Front Range, has raised rates consistently year after year. Here is the recent track record:
- Over the past decade, Xcel Energy residential rates in Colorado have increased by an average of 3 to 5 percent per year
- In some recent years, rate increases have exceeded 6 percent when accounting for fuel cost adjustments, rider charges, and infrastructure surcharges
- The average residential electricity rate in the Xcel Energy Colorado service territory now exceeds $0.14 per kWh, up from around $0.11 per kWh just five years ago
- Xcel has filed for additional rate increases to fund grid modernization, wildfire mitigation, and clean energy transition infrastructure
These are not anomalies. Utility rates have increased virtually every year for decades, and there is no reason to expect that trend to reverse. Grid infrastructure is aging, wildfire risk requires expensive mitigation, and the transition to cleaner energy sources requires massive capital investment that ratepayers fund through their bills. To better understand how these charges break down, see our guide on understanding your electricity bill.
The Cumulative Cost of Waiting: Real Numbers
Let us calculate what waiting actually costs using a typical Colorado homeowner's electricity usage. We will use conservative assumptions:
- Monthly electricity bill: $175 (common for a Colorado home with 800-1,000 kWh/month usage)
- Solar offset: 90 percent of electricity usage
- Effective monthly savings with solar: $155 (accounting for the small remaining utility charges)
- Annual utility rate increase: 4 percent (conservative based on recent history)
Cost of Waiting 1 Year
If you delay solar by 12 months, you pay approximately $1,860 in electricity bills that solar would have largely eliminated (12 months x $155 average savings). But it does not stop there. Because rates increase during that year, your electricity cost in month 12 is higher than in month 1. And once you finally do install solar, your savings start from a higher base cost, meaning you have permanently lost those 12 months of savings that you can never recover.
Total cost of a 1-year delay: approximately $1,900 in lost savings.
Cost of Waiting 2 Years
Over two years of delay, you pay full utility rates that are now 4 percent higher in year two than year one. The cumulative electricity bills pile up: $155 per month in year one growing to approximately $161 per month in year two as rates rise.
Total cost of a 2-year delay: approximately $3,900 in lost savings.
Cost of Waiting 5 Years
Five years is where the compounding effect of rate increases really shows its impact. With 4 percent annual increases, a $175 monthly bill becomes approximately $213 by year five. Over those 60 months, you have paid approximately $11,500 in electricity that solar would have offset. And now the solar system you eventually buy costs more too (more on that below).
Total cost of a 5-year delay: approximately $10,400 in lost savings.
For homes with higher electricity bills, the numbers are proportionally larger. A household with a $300 monthly bill loses over $17,800 in potential savings over a 5-year delay.
Equipment Price Trends: Will Solar Get Cheaper?
One of the most common reasons people delay is the belief that solar panels will be significantly cheaper next year. Let us examine whether that assumption holds up.
Solar panel module prices have indeed dropped dramatically over the past 15 years, falling more than 90 percent since 2009. However, the rate of decline has slowed substantially. Module prices now represent a relatively small portion of total system cost. The majority of your solar installation cost comes from labor, racking, inverters, electrical work, permitting, and overhead, and these "soft costs" have not declined at the same rate. In fact, labor and material costs have been increasing due to inflation.
Additionally, trade policies including solar tariffs on imported panels and components have added costs that offset some manufacturing efficiency gains. The net result is that total installed solar system prices have been relatively stable or even slightly increasing in recent years after accounting for inflation.
The bottom line: solar is unlikely to get dramatically cheaper in the next few years. Any modest price reduction would be more than offset by the electricity bills you pay while waiting.
Net Metering Policy Risk
Beyond electricity rates and equipment costs, there is another financial risk to delaying: net metering policies could change. Net metering is the policy that allows you to send excess solar electricity back to the grid and receive full retail-rate credit on your bill. It is one of the key financial pillars that makes residential solar economically attractive.
However, net metering has come under pressure from utilities across the country. California has already significantly reduced net metering compensation for new solar customers under its NEM 3.0 policy. Other states have followed with similar changes. While Colorado currently has strong net metering protections, there is no guarantee that today's favorable policy will remain unchanged indefinitely.
Homeowners who install solar under the current net metering policy are typically grandfathered in, meaning their favorable rate structure is locked in even if the policy changes for new customers later. Waiting means risking installation under potentially less favorable terms. This policy risk is hard to quantify precisely, but it adds urgency to the decision.
Inflation on Installation Costs
General inflation affects every component of a solar installation. Aluminum for racking, copper for wiring, electrician labor rates, roofing materials, and permitting fees all increase over time. Even if solar panel module prices remain flat, the total cost of installation tends to rise with inflation.
At a conservative 3 percent annual inflation rate, a solar installation that costs $25,000 today would cost approximately $25,750 a year from now and $28,200 in three years. That is $3,200 more for the same system, on top of the $5,800 in electricity savings you forfeited during those three years.
Tax Credit Uncertainty
The federal solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) currently provides a 30 percent credit on solar installation costs. This credit was extended and expanded by the Inflation Reduction Act, but political and budgetary pressures mean future changes are always possible. Previous versions of the solar tax credit have been reduced over time, stepping down from 30 to 26 to 22 percent before being extended.
If you install a $25,000 system today, you receive a $7,500 federal tax credit. If the credit is reduced to 26 percent next year, that same system would yield only $6,500, a $1,000 difference. If the credit is further reduced or eliminated, the financial impact of waiting becomes even more significant.
The Full Opportunity Cost Analysis
When you add up all the factors, the true cost of waiting to go solar includes:
- Lost monthly savings: Every month without solar is a month paying full retail electricity rates
- Compounding rate increases: Utility rates rise 3 to 5 percent per year, making each month of delay more expensive than the last
- Rising installation costs: Inflation pushes the cost of the same system higher each year
- Net metering risk: Favorable policies available today may not be available tomorrow
- Tax credit risk: The 30 percent federal tax credit may be reduced in future policy changes
- Shortened payback benefit window: Solar panels produce power for 25 to 30 years. Every year you delay is a year of free electricity you never receive
Here is a summary for a typical Colorado home with a $175 monthly bill:
| Delay Period | Lost Savings | Higher System Cost | Total Cost of Delay |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 months | $940 | $375 | $1,315 |
| 1 year | $1,900 | $750 | $2,650 |
| 2 years | $3,900 | $1,525 | $5,425 |
| 5 years | $10,400 | $3,950 | $14,350 |
These numbers do not even include potential net metering policy changes or tax credit reductions, which could add thousands more to the cost of delay.
What About Waiting for Better Technology?
Some homeowners delay because they believe that next-generation solar panels with higher efficiency will be available soon. While solar technology does continue to improve, the gains are incremental. Current premium panels from manufacturers like QCell, REC, and Meyer Burger already operate at 20 to 22 percent efficiency. Even if next year's panels reach 23 percent, that marginal improvement is dwarfed by the cost of paying full electricity bills for another 12 months.
Think of it like smartphones: there will always be a better model next year, but last year's model still does everything you need. Today's solar panels are mature, highly efficient, and backed by 25 to 30 year warranties. Waiting for a marginally better panel while paying Xcel Energy $175 or more per month is like refusing to buy a car that gets 35 miles per gallon because next year's model might get 36.
The Best Time to Go Solar
The best time to go solar was five years ago. The second-best time is today. Every day of delay is money leaving your pocket and going to the utility company instead of staying in your savings account.
Right now, Colorado homeowners have a favorable combination of strong net metering policies, a 30 percent federal tax credit, mature and reliable solar technology, and experienced local installers who can get your system up and running in 6 to 12 weeks. None of these factors are guaranteed to persist indefinitely.
ProGreen Solar makes the process straightforward. We provide a free, no-pressure consultation where we analyze your electricity usage, design a system for your home, and present the financial case with transparent numbers. You will see exactly how much you are currently paying, how much you will save, and how quickly the system pays for itself.
Stop paying the cost of waiting. Contact ProGreen Solar today or call us at (303) 484-1410 to get started.
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